Daily Market Commentary

11-4-2024

Morning Comments

The weaker dollar provided tailwinds for the grain and oilseed markets today. Corn and soybeans saw early support from fresh export sales, while also seeing some support from solid export inspection data released mid-morning. Soybean prices found support just above the August lows, but follow-through strength just isn't there currently, with good rains falling in Brazil.

USDA inspected 79.3 million bushels of soybeans for export shipment in the week ending October 31, as shown below, along with 30.7 million bushels of corn, The portion of the above that was inspected specifically for shipment to China included 51.4 million bushels of soybeans, 0.06 million bushels of corn. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections total 470 million bushels, up 16 million or 3.5% from the previous year's pace, and up 45 million bushels from the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the year. We need to see strong sales continue in the weeks ahead though to sustain the pace, as sales continue to lag the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target. Soybean export inspections thus far total 25% of USDA's target for the year. We typically inspect two-thirds of the crop for export shipment by the end of January, with the final third shipped in the last seven months of the marketing year. Marketing year to date corn export inspections total 292 million bushels, up 74 million or 34% from the previous year's pace, and 20 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target. That's a positive sign, considering that shipments are typically strongest in the last half of the marketing year.

Grains are higher on macro trade with some exiting "Trump trades" after weekend polls switched to showing Harris a small lead. Energies also higher with Iran/Israel situation simmering until after the US election.

Friday's CFTC report showed the funds exiting over 53k contracts of their corn short position the previous week and were short less than 20k contracts now. Technically the corn market is looking supportive with next resistance toward $4.21- 4.25 area. USDA harvest progress number expected to be at over above 90% complete. Rains this weekend in the Midwest slowing remaining harvest and fall tillage work. More rain forecast for next weekend in the Midwest.

Brazil 1st season corn plantings are 72% complete, right in line with the 5-yr avg.

Weather forecast remains generally favorable for moisture in Brazil next 6-10 days. Resistance for Jan futures is $10.10 and then $10.25.

Each month, the Monthly Monitor asks economists to list the factors that could impact crop prices over the next six months. In the latest survey, economists said:

• South American weather
• U.S.-China trade relations
• Election outcomes
• Global geopolitical risks
• Biofuel demand

The Biggest Wildcard: South America

“The biggest thing that will impact the markets is going to be South American weather. What happens in Brazil and Argentina and what’s the size of the soybean crop they’re going to get? Right now, it is raining. The crop is being planted late. Our people on the ground in Brazil are expecting a big crop if these rains continue,” Suderman said. While the soybean crop could see suppressed prices if Brazil grows a big crop this year, the later-planted crop could eat into the supplies of corn.

“Even where we’re at today could have an impact on that second-crop corn, given that I anticipate that we’re going to see a very robust corn export picture even without a shrinkage in that second-crop Brazilian corn. I still think there’s an upside potential for the corn market, and it’s going to be based on the size of that second-crop corn in Brazil,” said Brown.

A Recent Surge in Corn Sales

The corn export demand picture has been strong, which is thanks to a surge in sales to Mexico. “If we didn’t have it, corn prices would be a lot lower today than where they are,” said Brown.“When we look at the export pace that we’re on right now, it’s stronger than what we normally have at this time of year, and it’s largely been because of Mexico. Mexico has been a very aggressive buyer of U.S. corn here, at what they perceive to be the harvest lows,” Suderman said.

John R. Anderson

Vice President of Grain

Farmers Union Cooperative

563-380-2311

HARVEST HOURS-2024

Manchester - MON-FRI----7:30AM to 4:00PM THANK YOU FOR YOUR BUSINESS!

Ossian - MON-FRI---- 7:30AM to 6:00PM -----Weekend Hours for 11-9 and 11-10  ------SAT- TBD and SUN-TBD

Postville - MON-FRI---- 7:30AM to 4:30PM-----Weekend Hours for 11-9 and 11-10   ------SAT- TBD and SUN-TBD Weather

Fort - MON-FRI---- 7:30AM to 5:00PM THANK YOU FOR YOUR BUSINESS!

Waucoma - MON-FRI---- 7:30AM to 4:00PM THANK YOU FOR YOUR BUSINESS!

New Albin - MON-FRI---- 7:30AM to 4:00PM Call for weekend hours 

ShellRock - MON-FRI---- 7:30AM to 6:00PM  -----Weekend hours for week of 11-9 and 11-10     Closed Saturday and Sunday

Poet Fairbank - MON-FRI---- 6AM to 10:00PM ----  Sat---8AM to 6PM Sun---CLOSED

Cargill Beans - MON-FRI---- 7:30AM to 6:00PM-----  Sat 8AM to 3PM

Homeland - MON-TUES---- 7:00AM to 2:00PM ---- Weekend hours for week of 11-9 and 11-10     SAT--- CLOSED and SUN---- CLOSED

CGB - TBD

Valero - TBD

Cargill CR Corn - TBD

Viserion - TBD

Big River - MON-FRI----  Sat 7AM to 5PM Sun 10AM to 3PM

Ingredion - TBD

ADM Clinton - 7AM to 3PM

Viterra DBQ - TBD